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A Deep Recession or A Slow but Sure Recovery?

Last updated 12 June 2020
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Enterprise M3 LEP is engaging with business and researchers to assess the impact of Covid-19 on the local economy, and shape actions to aid the fastest possible recovery.

Recent forecasts from the Bank of England suggest that UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could be down 25% in Q2 2020, whilst almost nine million UK employees are now on the furlough scheme. The economic impact of the pandemic is set to be vast, and as an organisation focused on supporting growth, the EM3 LEP is working with partners now ,and not just waiting to see what happens down the line.

In partnership with Metro Dynamics, the LEP is exploring what the impact might be under different economic scenarios.

The best case scenario would be a quick return to economic growth (often referred to as a ‘V-shaped’ recession), which is seen as unlikely. The middle scenario is a slow return to economic growth (a ‘U’ shape), and the worst case is a lingering cloud over economic growth (an ‘L’ shape). Uncertainty about a vaccine and government policy makes it hard to make concrete predictions, but Metro Dynamics suggests an outcome somewhere between the middle and worst case is most likely. An approach of hoping for the middle case, but planning for the worst case, is the wisest course.

To enrich our understanding, Metro Dynamics are engaging with local stakeholders and businesses to gain a view of how things are ‘on the ground’ and how the pandemic has affected their business and sector.

The findings of this research and engagement will  shape the response and inform how we can best support businesses and sectors within the LEP area to deal with the pandemic and its aftermath, and to help stimulate recovery within the area.

Sue Littlemore, Head of Policy, Strategy, Communications & Political Engagement at Enterprise M3, said:

“The LEP is determined to support our economy to ensure our businesses, our people and our communities not only recover from the impact of Covid19, but quickly grasp new opportunities to adapt and grow.

This work with Metro Dynamics is critical to our understanding of where we can act to deliver the most effective support. “

For more information on the economic impact analysis being undertaken, please follow the link to a blog here.



Enterprise M3, Belvedere House, Basing View
RG21 4HG
United Kingdom


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